Prestigious Economist, page President of ECLAC, chose our Health Resort to Vacation during your stay, daily LaVoz Interior, he made the following note.

“One dollar would be in equilibrium $ 4,20”

That value would favor the competitiveness of the export sector, said economist, but warned of capital flight.

The director of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) United Nations in Argentina, Bernardo Kosacoff, He said the international crisis "is very deep and affect us". Rest at the Posada del Qenti, in the mountains of Cordoba, economist admitted in conversation with this newspaper, that "the external environment is far from clear skies", and acknowledged that the government "is trying to" make countercyclical policies to address the crisis, which it is "right".

- The country is in recession?

-It is very clear that there is a strong slowdown. We had an economy that was growing at eight percent and, although it is difficult to estimate accurately, We are now close to zero percent. We can say, then, we are in an implosion, in a crisis, a generalized disorder of the economic system, but the adjustment has been important and clearly the dilemmas of economic policy are different from those of a few months ago.

- What capita gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to 2009?

-Optimistic versions are talking about a GDP between zero and two percent. The most pessimistic versions, place it between zero and less 1,5 percent. Certainly, is very difficult to give an adequate estimate, because it will depend on what will be the external environment, which is obviously far from clear skies. What is very clear is that the international crisis is very deep and it affects us.

- How do you evaluate government policies?

-I think there are at least a diagnosis and that is an important point. It is clear that the global crisis is not alien to us. At first, financial channel did not affect us, but this second time, when we are looking at the prices of our products, access to new markets and protectionist practices, we see that the international crisis hits production, in employment and income. And, in this sense, the government is trying to make countercyclical policies, what I think is right. Although the question is how the funds. Regrettably, in good times we do not generate countercyclical funds to address precisely these issues.

- What else do you think the government should do to overcome this crisis?

-Basically, requires a comprehensive program and an effort of the whole country to regain sanity and improve public-private. I think this crisis is a major test for the Argentina Society, in terms that we can achieve more shared visions.

- How to evolve the dollar in the year?

-If you look at the dollar in terms of supply and demand for foreign exchange, and our relationship with neighboring countries and with our major trading partners, has been somewhat delayed. One dollar in equilibrium should have a value of 4,20 from 4,30 pesos. The theme that you see is an acceleration of the devaluation would have positive impacts but also negative. Favor the export competitiveness and achieve an improvement in the fiscal accounts. The negative impacts, while, its: how the devaluation would move to inflation, and the most important is whether economic agents perceive an exchange acceleration is the beginning of a much larger devaluation, could generate an acceleration of capital outflows.

With this, the dilemmas of economic policy require an integrated program that will be restricted just to try to see how expectations of economic agents are administered.

Natalia Garcia

La Voz del Interior


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